A global wave of interest rate cuts is coming.
How much capital can be awakened in A-shares?
This week, the Jackson Hole Annual Symposium (the annual meeting of the world's central banks) was held.
It is held every August in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA.
At this meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sent a clear signal for interest rate cuts.
Starting next month, under the impetus of the Fed's rate cuts, central banks around the world will start a wave of interest rate cuts.
A-shares are currently in a slump.
In just two or three years, A-shares have evaporated more than 20 trillion yuan, and Hong Kong stocks have also evaporated more than 20 trillion yuan.
Under such circumstances, China's economy still maintains high growth.
You say, isn't the United States angry?
It can't be pulled down or collapsed, and the Fed can only surrender.
The wave of interest rate cuts has begun!
In just 40 years of reform and opening up in our country, the stock market is only 30 years old, so a little crisis cannot negate everything.
Currently, the only one in the world that can compete with the United States is our country.
So when the wave of interest rate cuts comes, a new round of stimulus policies is expected to arrive.
Looking for opportunities with high growth and large space is still the main line of the capital market.
How much capital can be awakened in A-shares?
In fact, the world's largest, with an M2 scale exceeding 300 trillion yuan.
Public funds, private funds, bank wealth management, insurance funds, and so on.
The world's largest!
Looking forward to some market conditions.
This fall is really incredible.
As of today, according to the data from the China Securities Investment Fund Association, the total scale of China's asset management industry is 68.10 trillion yuan, with 202,770 products.
However, the amount of capital for stock speculation is very small.
There are 94,216 private securities investment funds in existence, with a scale of 5.03 trillion yuan; public stock funds are 2.90 trillion yuan, and mixed funds are 3.3 trillion yuan.
That is to say, the capital for public and private stock speculation does not exceed 10 trillion yuan.
That is, in the 70 trillion yuan A-shares, retail investors are still the main force.
In more than two years, more than 20 trillion yuan has evaporated, and the total market value of A-shares has broken through 70 trillion yuan today, with the highest time being 92.35 trillion yuan.
Is this time a super bottom?
Hong Kong stocks have also evaporated more than 20 trillion yuan in three years.
From the perspective of the capital market, the number of retail investors in the United States exceeds 100 million, accounting for about 30% of its total population.
There are 220 million stock market investors in our country, and more than 700 million fund investors.
As of March 2024, India has more than 150 million stock trading accounts, nearly tripling in just three years.
In this way, we do not have a significant number of investors.
Although the scale of fund investors is as high as 700 million, the number of stock funds is very small.
If A-shares can rise, the capital that can be awakened is actually very large.
Overall, the scale of retail investors in the United States, China, and India is roughly the same, so going to retail may be a misunderstanding.
The key is to see the ability to choose growth stocks.
Make a good transformation and lay out growth value investment opportunities.
The scale of public funds reaches 31.49 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high.
The latest data released by the China Securities Investment Fund Association shows that as of the end of July 2024, there are 163 public fund management institutions in China, including 148 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications.
The net value of public funds managed by the above institutions is 31.49 trillion yuan.
As of the end of July, the scale of private funds is 19.69 trillion yuan.
On August 21, the China Securities Investment Fund Association released the monthly report of private funds in July 2024.
As of the end of July 2024, there are 20,732 private fund managers in existence, with 150,543 funds managed, and the scale of funds managed is 19.69 trillion yuan.
Among them, there are 8,186 private securities investment fund managers; 12,316 private equity and venture capital fund managers; 8 private asset allocation fund managers; and 222 other private investment fund managers.
The scale of the bank's wealth management market is 28.52 trillion yuan.
On July 30, Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, the Banking Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center released a semi-annual report on the 30th, showing that as of the end of June this year, the scale of China's bank wealth management market is 28.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.43% from the beginning of the year.
From the perspective of product structure, as of the end of June, the scale of fixed-income products in existence is 27.63 trillion yuan, accounting for 96.88% of the total scale of wealth management products in existence, an increase of 0.54 percentage points from the beginning of the year.
The total balance of insurance funds exceeds 30.87 trillion yuan.
On August 14, 2024, the source: China Banking and Insurance News.
The State Financial Regulatory Administration released the situation of the use of funds in the insurance industry in the first half of the year.
The data shows that as of the end of the second quarter this year, the balance of funds used by insurance companies is 30.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.98% year-on-year.
Among them, the balance of funds used by life insurance companies is 27.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.78% year-on-year; the balance of funds used by property insurance companies is 2.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.24% year-on-year.
How much capital can be awakened in A-shares?
20 trillion yuan is just a drop in the bucket.
Overall, if there is a bull market, the scale of capital that can be awakened in A-shares is expected to reach 20 trillion yuan.
First, the public offering is 31 trillion yuan, and the investment in the stock market is less than 10 trillion yuan.
If there is a bull market, it can stimulate and activate the entry of 5 trillion yuan.
There are 19 trillion yuan in private funds, and there are 5 trillion yuan in stock speculation.
If there is a market, it is also expected to increase by 3-5 trillion yuan.
Banks and insurance funds do not speculate in stocks, but the market is generally easy to move deposits in a bull market.
The scale of the two markets is as high as 60 trillion yuan, and moving 10% to speculate in stocks is also as high as 6 trillion yuan.
In addition, the scale of retail investors is already large, and it is still hoped to attract 5 trillion yuan of funds.
Although the data has not been found, 99% of the market is retail investors, and the theoretical scale of funds accounts for more than half.
The fall is so small that there is also 40%, which is close to 30 trillion yuan, and it is still hoped to attract an additional 5 trillion yuan.
Of course, due to the market situation, some funds are generally produced when they rise, not from the outside.
However, due to the large base of China's market, it has not risen in the past 10 years, but IPO has issued nearly 3,000 companies.
Now, IPO has greatly slowed down and become very strict, and the future growth rate is not expected to be large.
Under this situation, the rise of the index is expected to come.
I am still looking forward to it, but I dare to study only the growth of leading opportunities.
The current theme stocks can be replaced with over-sold leading stocks, growth-class leading stocks.
This operation has an advantage, that is, the leading stocks are not afraid of delisting, but you have to find the leading stocks with high growth, so it is easier and fiercer to rise.
The U.S. stock market and India are all these stocks that have risen sharply.