Fed's Long-Term High Rates May Spark Gold Rush
Sudden announcement in the early morning!
The Federal Reserve,major announcement!
At 2 a.m.Beijing time on August 1,the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range of the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%.
Gold prices surged directly,hitting $2,500 per ounce.
This was what I said at the beginning of the year,and it has been achieved as a whole as expected.
We must all understand that the world is accelerating financial integration,or rather,accelerating global integration.
Gold has been rising for six consecutive years,but it is still accelerating,which is the process of global currency integration.
It's not that the United States opposes globalization,but rather that the United States is using the anti-globalization hype to accelerate globalization comprehensively.
To put it directly,the United States does not want a peaceful globalization with you,but a unified front globalization.
To be more direct,it is to strike you all.
This is straightforward enough,right?
Give it a thumbs up.
The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has greatly increased,and the media is ecstatic,but when it comes to the market,you will find that apart from U.S.stocks and gold,apart from global core assets,everything else is collapsing.
The Indian index is rising,and the Australian index is also at a new high,but it is all core stocks that are rising,and the rest are being integrated one after another.
The integration of various industries is accelerating,and gold has become the hardest currency.
Why is Lei Jun involved in the car industry,with support from Xiaopeng,Li Bin,and Li Xiang?
Aren't they competitors?
Indeed,they are not competitors.
Originally,three younger brothers were taking the lead,but later it was found that they still couldn't compete with Huawei,so they brought out the big boss Lei Jun to launch Xiaomi cars,which has leveled the score with Huawei cars,or at least narrowed the gap.
Why not focus on smartphones anymore?
If everyone looks at Xiaomi phones and Huawei phones,you will find that the current phones,apart from the back being different,the front is all the same.
They are becoming more and more similar,and the only obvious difference is just the name.
Lei Jun also said that the smartphone battlefield is over,with only Samsung and Apple competing internationally,and there are still 5 or 6 companies competing domestically,but the conflict will end soon.
What I want to say is very clear,I want to tell my old friends that the stock market has changed,it used to be mainly about speculating on junk stocks,but now it is about focusing on major leaders,and it must be leaders.
Not being a leader carries the risk of being acquired,and that is still a good thing.
The fear is being directly eliminated and eliminated.
So now everyone needs to change,and it is still possible,to find growth leaders and wait for capital to pour in and accumulate.
Why is gold so fierce?
Whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates or not,it will rise.
Because the currencies of all major and minor countries in the world are collapsing comprehensively,or accelerating integration.
Cryptocurrencies have emerged in this way.
But numbers are numbers,there are always some concerns,not as hard as gold.
So all the small countries in the world,on the one hand,have to prevent capital flight,on the other hand,they have to prevent currency devaluation,and the only way at this time is to exchange for gold,to buy gold.
Countries other than the United States are doing this,and can only do this.
The sooner the better.
Slow down and devalue.
Comprehensive interest rate cuts,currency redemption of 480 billion but not into the stock market fund industry data,in June alone,there was a large redemption of money market funds.
As of the end of June this year,42% of the 31 trillion public funds are money market funds.
Money market funds (mainly investing in interbank certificates of deposit and short-term bonds),due to comprehensive interest rate cuts,the yield has already fallen below 2%,so the share of money market funds has shrunk from 13.67 trillion to 13.19 trillion,with a net redemption of 482.2 billion.
Where can these funds go,why not into the stock market?
The conventional understanding is that they will go to the financial product market,but due to interest rate cuts,the direction of investment in financial products is actually similar to money funds,and it is also impossible to achieve ultra-high returns.
So in order to hedge,to prevent devaluation,buying gold will be a direction,but it will also be afraid of being high.
So there is also an expectation that some funds will return to the stock market.
However,in the long run,the direction in which the stock market can rise is only high-dividend growth stocks.
For junk themes,apart from following the hype,it is not the direction of long-term capital layout.
Always remember,the listed companies with super growth are not many.
Only a few technology companies in the U.S.stock market are crazy,India has a few tycoons,and Japan has five major trading houses.
So in the A-shares with more than 5,000 listed companies,there won't be many that can rise crazily,and it's hard to have even 10,and it's very difficult to have a few crazy ones with 10 times or 100 times.
It's very difficult to choose,you have to understand.
Cherish the current situation,with a comprehensive interest rate cut outside the market,a large amount of money funds,bond funds,and capital surplus,there is an expectation of entering the stock market at any time,the growth space of good companies in the future will be giants.
As I have repeatedly said,the world has entered the era of great powers,and capital will only look for great powers to layout.
Because for small countries,even the things in the museum are now stored in China.
Think about the reason,because the world is very unstable.
During the Olympic Games,there are still wars everywhere.
In the end,it will be found that small countries can only buy gold to preserve value.
Buying the US dollar is also afraid of being hit by the United States,so only gold is relatively hard.
It is the super hard currency recognized by the world.
This is a better choice for many small countries.
Next,under the long-term high interest rates of the Federal Reserve,the pressure on the currencies of many small countries will continue,which is a continuous long-term benefit for gold.
Therefore,it is not impossible to hit $3,000 per ounce by the end of the year,because the world has few hard currencies to choose from.
Even in the stock market,there are not many good fish,so there are good companies that will rise strongly with gold,like the U.S.stock index.
But it's not a good company and there is a risk of being kicked out.
The market is becoming more and more centralized,and capital will only be concentrated in the growth leaders.
The theme speculation will still appear repeatedly,but the fluctuation is very fierce,and it is not something that ordinary people can play with.
On the contrary,if you can short junk stocks,you can choose appropriately.