Here's the translation of the provided text into English: **Leveraging the significant morning surge in Hong Kong stocks,the A-share market also quickly rallied at the open,but as the Hong Kong stocks quickly retreated,the A-shares predictably followed suit.

In the morning session,heavyweights and thematic stocks jointly pushed up,with nearly 4000 stocks rising,but the slight increase in trading volume was not enough to support such a broad-based rally.

A widespread rise without volume is a dead end.

A herd-like rebound cannot create a strong localized profit effect,and naturally,it cannot attract capital to enter the market.

Without capital to continue the rally,it is difficult to sustain.

As the long holiday approaches,few funds are willing to enter the market.

Without volume support,it's already good to maintain a structural market.

If there must be a comprehensive blooming of hot spots,it's definitely not feasible.

It can only be said that capital has no direction,no target,everyone is fighting their own battle,and various funds are just slightly pushing up their own stocks,and they will run at the slightest rise.

We repeatedly remind that at this position,you can buy on dips,but absolutely should not chase highs.

Otherwise,you will be trapped in the short term.

If you chased highs this morning,the result would be no negotiation,you're trapped.

From the joint rise of heavyweights and thematic stocks in the morning,to a general rise in stocks,it soon differentiated,with more stocks falling than rising.

Heavyweights maintained the index in the red,and thematic stocks began to fall.

Differentiation is inevitable; when the index rises,it's hard for individual stocks to rise,and to achieve a stock market,the index is hard to rise.

A collective rise of the index and individual stocks can only be short-lived,and the rebound of individual stocks lacks strength.

Today's morning performance was stronger than expected,but this kind of upward push is not conducive to the development of the market.

Repeated upward pushes can only lead to a fall,and can only accumulate the force to repeatedly smash the market.

The morning was stronger than expected mainly for several reasons: First,Hong Kong stocks quickly rose in the morning,Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to the Fed's interest rate cuts than A-shares,after all,foreign capital is more flexible in Hong Kong stocks.

Second,over the weekend,the RMB exchange rate rose again,breaking through the 7.04 mark.

Third,the most critical factor,the central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repo,and the winning rate was reduced to 1.85%.

Last Friday,the market expected a cut in LPR,but it didn't happen,but today the 14-day reverse repo rate was reduced by 10 basis points,and the 7-day reverse repo rate remained the same as before.

Although the reduction is not large,the significance is still considerable.

It is believed that as the Fed enters the interest rate reduction cycle,there is a lot of room for maneuver in domestic monetary policy,and it is also possible to reduce reserves and interest rates.

With the above three major benefits,it is reasonable to have a weak rebound in the short term.

However,a short-term weak rebound cannot change the downward trend,and it is actually unfavorable for the next trend.

I have always emphasized that if the market wants to do something now,it must use a large volume of a big Yang line to establish authority,otherwise,it cannot attract capital to enter the market,everyone is waiting and seeing.

A small rebound cannot solve the problem,and it cannot achieve an upward breakthrough.

On the contrary,it is easy to confuse people.

A small rebound is easy to evolve into repeated killing,which is easy to hit the confidence of investors.

The result of repeatedly chasing the rise is repeatedly being trapped.

The more it is like this,the more investors dare not enter the market,which will lengthen the time and space to see the bottom.

The short line has missed the best opportunity to reverse the downward trend,and it is difficult to gather confidence in the short term to achieve a strong rebound,and can only wait for major good news.

Of course,before the festival,it is almost impossible for the market to make a substantial change at this important time window.

Real change still needs to wait for after the festival.

For the medium and long term,there is no need to be pessimistic.

Positive factors are continuously accumulating,and there is a lot of room for operation in monetary policy.

Monetary policy changes provide great support for economic recovery.

For the market,the last step is to wait for the change of the basic outlook of listed companies,and the construction of the capital market system is also continuously accumulating momentum for the market to rebound.

In the short term,as long as you don't chase the rise,dare to enter when it falls,there will not be much loss.

Of course,even if you are trapped at this position,it is nothing more than losing a little time.

Next,let's talk about some topics that everyone is concerned about: 1.

On the appreciation of the RMB.

Everyone has always regarded the devaluation of the RMB as a major reason for the decline of the stock market,but in the past period,the RMB exchange rate has appreciated a lot,mainly due to the impact of the Fed's interest rate cuts.

However,the A-share market is still dominated by the decline,and there is no excitement about appreciation.

Many people understand that this appreciation is a passive appreciation,not an active appreciation.

In fact,the continuous depreciation of the exchange rate before was also a passive depreciation,after all,the Fed raised interest rates more than ten times in one breath.

So whether it was the depreciation before or the appreciation in the past few months,there is a bit of a passive change.

In my opinion,there are many factors for market ups and downs,and in the short term,many factors are intertwined,and it is difficult to say which factor has a greater impact.

Regardless of the reason for the appreciation of the RMB,the market has not reacted much in the short term,but we cannot deny the positive effect of appreciation on the market,which needs to be verified over time.

I believe that this kind of benefit will gradually play out,and once the benefits converge,the market will definitely respond.

The dean of the Chongyang Institute of Finance at Renmin University of China: As the Fed continues to cut interest rates before the end of the year,it is entirely possible for the RMB exchange rate to return to the "6 era" this year.

Wang Wen,the dean of the Chongyang Institute of Finance at Renmin University of China,said that in recent weeks,the expectation of the United States cutting interest rates has been rising,which has promoted the international demand for the RMB,naturally generating an uncontrollable rise in the RMB exchange rate,repeatedly setting a new high in recent years.

On September 20,the exchange rate of the US dollar to the RMB was 7.07,but I still think this is far from the high point.

You should know that it was around 6.3 in June 2022.

I optimistically estimate that as the Fed continues to cut interest rates before the end of the year,it is entirely possible for the RMB exchange rate to return to the "6 era" this year.

2.

The index made another effort in the morning,can it go further in the afternoon?

In the morning,I didn't expect a rebound today,and I thought it would be more likely to fall and then pull up.

However,stimulated by some favorable factors during the market,the market still rebounded to a certain extent,which was much stronger than I expected.

The morning rose and fell back,and around 10:30,another round of rise began,but the problem is that there was no volume during the rebound.

The overall volume in the morning was more than 10 billion,and from 10:30,the rebound volume was still maintained at more than 10 billion,which can only be said to pull the index,and individual stocks did not follow the rebound.

Fortunately,domestic institutions did not have a large outflow today,only a small outflow,which is already very good.

In the afternoon,as long as domestic capital does not flow out significantly,today's rebound can still be maintained,but it is difficult to continue to rebound.

In the afternoon,focus on two things: first,the trend of domestic institutions,and second,the overall volume.

From my prediction,it is difficult to promote the rebound,and you have to run in the short term,and you can stick to the medium term.

**