It seems that the market bulls are playing a joke again.

The sporadic rebound lacks any strength.

Although we have been looking forward to a break before a rise,after breaking through the 2700-point mark,there indeed was a rebound,but the strength of this rebound is a big disappointment.

The downward break has been quite significant,falling through several steps after breaking through the 3000-point mark,and today it fell below the 2700-point mark,which can be described as a "big break," but there has been no "big rise."

It is clear that the break and rise are seriously disproportionate.

The rebound is more of a resistive rebound due to an oversold condition,rather than a spontaneous counterattack from a desperate situation.

Investors feel that the spring has been compressed enough,but it still cannot release its outward tension,which can only mean that the spring is not compressed enough.

In fact,today's rebound has no surprises,as everyone is expecting a break before a rise.

After such a long and deep fall,any strong rebound at this position is not unexpected.

However,this weak rebound is indeed disappointing.

We have repeatedly emphasized that if there is no rebound at this position,then it must be astonishing,and it must appear in a way that is overwhelming and destructive.

Such a gentle and cautious rebound is hard to sustain,and it would be good if it could continue for one or two days.

This small rebound is more likely to attract hatred and gather forces for another round of selling.

Let's sort out the main reasons for today's decline and rebound.

First,before the market opened,I always thought that a gap down would break through the 2700-point mark,but the Shanghai Composite Index was deliberately maintaining the 2700-point cover-up cloth in the morning,while the Shenzhen Component Index and the two innovation boards fell in advance.

On the time-sharing chart,the theme stocks led the decline significantly more than the weight stocks,and the individual stocks on the plate were bleak.

The actual performance of individual stocks in the morning has shown that it is meaningless to stubbornly defend the 2700-point mark.

The 2700-point mark is just a piece of window paper.

After the lunch break,it went down directly.

In fact,whether it can be pulled up after breaking through is still uncertain,as confidence is severely lacking,and no one can be sure that someone will bottom fish.

I have always emphasized that after breaking through the 2700-point mark,we focus on the movements of the national team's funds.

If the national team does not exert force,it cannot rebound even after breaking through the 2700-point mark.

However,according to past patterns,the probability of the national team taking action is relatively high after several major indexes have hit new lows at the same time.

Today,both the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes and the STAR market have hit new lows,and after the lunch break,it broke through the 2700-point mark again.

As expected,the national team began to exert force and eventually achieved a small rebound.

Second,I have always emphasized that today is likely to follow the trend of the Hong Kong stock market on Monday,with the market directly bottoming out in the morning and then pulling up.

If the market opens and pulls up directly,you must not chase.

The result was that although the index did not fall in the morning,the performance of individual stocks was very poor.

After lunch,there was finally a plunge,and then it slowly pulled up.

Of course,there is a factor of an oversold rebound here,but the key is still the exertion of the national team.

Without external intervention,it is difficult to expect when an oversold rebound will occur.

Third,today's market killing has both the reasons of inertia killing and the release of bearish factors during the long holiday.

Of course,the market still has an advance reaction to the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut tonight.

Of course,in my view,the market has already digested the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut,unless it cuts by 50 basis points,but from the market's expectation,it is relatively calm about the interest rate cut.

The interest rate cut will not have much impact on the A-share market.

If you only look at the strength of the rebound,it is really a drop in the ocean.

In the end,only more than 1500 stocks rose,while more than 3600 stocks fell.

And there are only about a hundred stocks that have risen by more than 5%.

There are only 32 stocks on the limit,and there are 28 stocks on the limit down.

It is obvious that such a small rebound is just a rebound led by the weight of the index,and it has not brought the stock market.

Today,due to the Hong Kong stock market being closed,the northbound funds are resting,so today's volume continues to shrink below 500 billion,and the total turnover of both markets is only more than 470 billion.

The volume has shrunk significantly,and the weight has led to a large amount of funds,and the theme can only fall in a large area.

Looking at the plate,the dividend plate that led the rise in the morning has risen again in the afternoon,and the banks and coal have risen all day.

At the same time,the weight side of the real estate plate has suddenly risen significantly,and the theme side of the photolithography machine has risen all day,but it has been a bottoming out after a significant rise.

The reason for the rise of real estate is first that the expectation of interest rate cuts is getting stronger and stronger.

The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve tonight is basically full,and the second is that Friday is the time window for LPR adjustment.

Last week,the expectation of reducing the interest rate of existing housing loans was also very strong.

The photolithography machine index once rose by more than 3%,which may be related to the logic of domestic substitution.

It is reported that the US and Japanese governments are about to reach an agreement on chip export control to China.

The White House hopes to announce new export control measures before the US presidential election in November,including requiring non-US companies to obtain permission first.

Through the combing of the plate,we basically come to a conclusion that in addition to the national team still stabilizing the index through the dividend plate,the rest of the hot spots are still centered on the good news of the message,but there is no continuity,and it is a place to change.

Domestic institutions are still shorting in a large way.

Today,it is only the power of the national team that brings the rebound of the weight,which is irrelevant to the stock market.

After breaking through the 2700-point mark,the market mentality is still very stable,and no one is willing to enter the market to bottom fish.

Once the power of the national team disappears tomorrow,the index will fall back,and the biggest hope is to bring a change in style,bringing the stock market,but due to insufficient confidence,no one is willing to enter the market,even if there is a stock market,it also has no strength.

In short,there will be no decent market before the festival,and short-term operations will fall appropriately to make a rebound,but you must not chase after the rise,which is easy to get hurt.

For the medium and long term,we can only give investors more confidence from the valuation and some positive changes in the market,after all,the market cannot fall endlessly.

From the perspective of valuation,it is cheap enough.

The rolling P/E ratio of the Shanghai Stock Index is currently about 12 times,lower than the two historical bottom levels in 2005 and 2008.

The market's P/B ratio is about 1.26 times,lower than the four historical bottom levels (June 2005,October 2008,June 2013,January 2019).

This year,more than a thousand A-share companies have completed a repurchase of more than 136 billion yuan,setting a new high for the same period in history,an increase of 1.7 times compared to the same period last year,and the trend of industrial capital is worth paying attention to.

Let's look at a few important signals: 1.

The total amount of the first 10 CSI A500 ETFs has reached nearly 10 billion yuan,and 2 have been raised in advance.

According to incomplete statistics,the first 10 CSI A500 ETFs have raised nearly 9.7 billion yuan in 5 trading days.

Among them,Harvest CSI A500 ETF announced the early end of the fundraising on the last trading day before the Mid-Autumn Festival,and today,Morgan Stanley CSI A500 ETF also announced the early end of the fundraising,which means that there is one product in advance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The other 8 products that are being issued,Jing Shun Great Wall,Fu Guo,and Huatai Bo Rui's CSI A500 ETF have all raised more than 10 billion yuan.

Recently,the fund has been issued quickly,and 14 funds were issued last week,of course,more are bond funds,and only 3 stock funds,and there are 6 funds issued this week,3 stock funds.

In addition,there are a large number of ETFs issued recently.

The market's enthusiasm for subscribing to ETF funds is still very high.

I believe that with the continuous increase in the number of new funds,it will provide more incremental funds for the stock market.

2.

The countdown to the release of the "pure blood" Hongmeng system,Changshan Beiming and other stocks have been suspended!

According to media reports,Chen Xinxin,the general manager of Huawei Hongmeng industry solutions,revealed at the 2024 China International Service Trade Fair Forum that Huawei's "pure blood" Hongmeng system HarmonyOS NEXT will be officially launched at the end of September this year.

The reporter called the securities department of three listed companies to ask whether the company has participated in the construction of the Hongmeng ecosystem.

The relevant person of Guohua Network Security said that the company did not directly participate in the construction of Huawei's Hongmeng system,but provided mobile network security services for some platforms and systems of Huawei; Dingxin Communication said that the company has products in the Hongmeng aspect,involving simple applications in the power grid field; Changshan Beiming said that it is not convenient to respond to questions about the Hongmeng system for the time being.

The overall performance of Huawei's concept has not been good recently,and the strongest Huawei Hais has been adjusted continuously.

However,the recent Huawei three-fold screen mobile phone booking is very hot,such a strong catalyst,but it has not brought the Huawei concept to strengthen.

Although it has not brought the overall strength of the plate,but the overall adjustment continues,but more to the individual stock market.

We can only hope that the individual stock market will spread to a certain extent,bringing a certain plate effect.

But for the Huawei concept,we can only look at it from a medium and long-term perspective,and can focus on it.

3.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China decides to take countermeasures against nine American military enterprises.

The reason for the counter-sanction is entirely self-inflicted,and the specific reasons are very clear to everyone.

The US side is really too greedy.

Although this is conducive to maintaining its own interests and strongly fighting against the arrogance of others.

But we must be clear that confrontation is not the best way to solve problems,and it will damage more interests of both parties.

It will bring new instability to the A-share market.

4.

Tonight,the world is in the spotlight!

The Fed's interest rate cut "giant ship" will officially set sail.

For the global financial market,tonight is destined to be a sleepless night...

According to the schedule,the Fed is scheduled to announce the September interest rate decision at 2 a.m.Beijing time on Thursday.

At present,the industry generally expects that the Fed will announce the first interest rate cut in four years at this meeting,and there is basically no suspense.

However,this is also the most mysterious or uncertain Fed interest rate night in recent years: Although the market has collectively determined that the Fed will cut interest rates this month,there is still a fierce dispute and division over how much the Fed policymakers will cut interest rates - whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in a more traditional way,or to take a more radical step of easing by directly cutting interest rates by 50 basis points.All of this suggests that the market volatility during the Asian session tonight and even on Thursday is destined to be anything but calm!

From a news perspective,I have a more pessimistic outlook on the short-term market trend.

After the interest rate cut is implemented tonight,if it's just 25 basis points,the A-share market will likely show no reaction; it will continue to fall if it's due to fall.

Ultimately,it will depend on the market sentiment at the opening; if it opens higher,it indicates that the market still has an optimistic attitude towards the interest rate cut.

However,the rate cut will not change the trend of the A-share market; it will only produce some positive factors in the short term,and after they are digested,the market will continue to fall.

If it opens lower tomorrow,it indicates that there is no emotional response to the rate cut,and the market will continue to fall as it should.

If the rate cut is 50 basis points,the probability of a short-term rebound in the A-share market will be higher,but of course,it will only be a short-term rebound.