Abstract: The United States has over $35 trillion in national debt,urgently needing interest rate cuts to control the risk of a financial explosion.

Main Body: Yellen has previously revealed that waiting too long is a risk for the United States.

Inflation in the U.S.is mainly driven by the rise in the housing market.

The U.S.continuously creates conflicts in major regions around the world,forcing and luring global tycoons to flood into the U.S.,which has driven the U.S.housing market and brought about significant inflation.

U.S.Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen,in an interview in June this year,refused to disclose when she expected the Federal Reserve to possibly reduce interest rates to alleviate the supply and demand pressure in the housing market,saying that it all depends on what clues the data presents to the Federal Reserve policymakers.

However,in the interview,Yellen also stated that the Federal Reserve policymakers are very clear about the risks brought about by waiting too long.

Currently,the benchmark interest rate set by the Federal Reserve is at the highest level in 23 years and has been at this historic high since last July.

Is the U.S.going to print money again?

According to the latest forecast from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch Tool on August 17,the probability of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in September is as high as 100%.

There is a 75% chance of a 25 basis point cut,and the possibility of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 25%.

At the same time,the observation tool predicts that by September 2025,the possibility of the Federal Reserve reducing the benchmark interest rate to 2.25% has already emerged.

According to this trend,it means that within the next year,the Federal Reserve may cumulatively cut interest rates by about 300 basis points.

It also suggests that a new round of money printing by the Federal Reserve may be about to start.

The Federal Reserve has started 11 rounds of interest rate hikes since 2022,raising the federal benchmark interest rate to the century's high of 5.25%-5.5%.

Under the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes,the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Middle East's Israeli-Palestinian conflict have erupted on a large scale.

The scale of the conflict is the largest since World War II.

At the same time,the world has also seen a currency war.

Under the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes,the Argentine currency collapsed and has currently stopped issuing legal tender.

The Egyptian currency in the Middle East suddenly collapsed.

On March 6 this year,the Egyptian currency—the Egyptian pound—suddenly collapsed,with the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound to the U.S.dollar plummeting by nearly 40%,once falling to 1 U.S.dollar for 50.55 Egyptian pounds,a historical low.

The Egyptian pound has joined the "Global Top Five Currency Collapse Club," and the main reasons for the collapse are roughly the same: hyperinflation,high debt,and extremely scarce foreign exchange.

As of the current time (August 18,2024),the Global Top Five Currency Collapse Club includes Egypt,Brazil,Lebanon,Argentina,and Zimbabwe.

The reasons for the collapse of the currencies of these countries are roughly the same,mainly including hyperinflation,debt crisis,and capital outflows caused by U.S.interest rate hikes.

Over $35 trillion in debt needs interest rate cuts to reduce pressure.

As of August 17,the total debt of the U.S.federal government has accumulated to an astronomical figure of $35.17 trillion.

Biden's administration has increased by $8.1 trillion in the past three and a half years,surpassing the $6.7 trillion increase during Trump's four years.

Economists such as Hartnett and others have analyzed that the interest expense of U.S.debt will reach $1.7 trillion in April 2025,becoming the largest single expenditure item in the United States.

As the total scale of debt continues to increase,it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve's high interest rates to be maintained,and interest rate cuts will be the most urgent need for the U.S.government in the short to medium term.

Gold is accelerating its rise!

Affected by the expectation of the start of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle,the price of gold futures has continued to accelerate its rise,and it has been rising for four consecutive quarters,with the price of gold futures surging to a historical high of $2,548.3 per ounce.

Of course,in addition to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts,gold didn't fall much during the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes,just flat and volatile.

So the rise in gold also has a significant factor,which is what I have repeatedly said,the global currency integration,the benefit of major currencies and core currencies.

The disappearance of small country currencies,the share left vacant is the domain of major currencies.

Gold,as the hardest currency,is likely to remain at a high level in the medium to long term before the completion of the major currency integration.

The A-share market should have a new round of the market.

If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 200-300 basis points in the next year,then the long-term low A-share market should have a new round of the market.

Long-term deflation cannot continue,and global inflation is our biggest market in the future.

The biggest mismatch,as long as corrected,our country's export scale can still explode.

Global inflation needs our strong manufacturing industry to resolve.

A-share market is strong and good news continues today.

News,heavy!

The State Council issued a document: local governments are not allowed to provide rewards for company listings.

Intermediary institutions are not allowed to help companies that do not meet the conditions to issue stocks publicly.

Recently,the Ministry of Justice,together with the Ministry of Finance and the Securities Regulatory Commission,drafted the "Regulations on the State Council's Provisions on Regulating Intermediary Institutions to Provide Services for Companies to Issue Stocks Publicly (Draft for Comments)" "Regulations" The solicitation period for comments is from August 16,2024,to September 15,2024.

Overall,the intention of the A-share market to strengthen the leading stocks is quite obvious.

The over-support of junk stocks,or the lack of growth,will lead to insufficient market investment confidence.

Therefore,only by comprehensively strengthening the leading enterprises can the competitiveness of the A-share market be better strengthened,and the ability to compete with the international market can be achieved.

From a broader perspective,the current policy is actively strengthening the leading stocks of the A-share market.

So if the trend of strict IPO continues,or forms a long-term mechanism,then the rise of value investment is worth looking forward to.

Note that it will not be a market where everyone rises together.

Be prepared for the layout of internationalization rules,and focus on leading stocks with strong growth.