Ah,these days,it's not just the fruits and vegetables in our backyard that depend on the weather for their growth,but even the money in our pockets is dancing to the tune of the world's changing winds.

Recently,those experts at Tianfeng Securities have put together another research report,and the "whispers" about the Renminbi and the US Dollar in it are both profound and closely related to the lives of ordinary people.

Today,let's talk in plain language about the ups and downs in our wallets.

Speaking of the Renminbi and the US Dollar,these two "old buddies" have been playing a game of "catch-up" right before our eyes for years.

The report from Tianfeng Securities says that the Renminbi is expected to continue its strong performance in the short term.

Why?

We need to delve into it carefully.

First,let's talk about what's happening with the Federal Reserve.

That interest rate cut in September was a "surprise attack" on the global market.

Normally,when interest rates are cut,shouldn't the US Dollar become as soft as a deflated balloon?

But this time,the bigwigs at the Fed have a tough book to read—the labor market is a bit unsettling.

So,they made a bold move,cutting rates by 50 basis points,with a clear intention to give the labor market a breather,preventing the economy from having a hard landing,and still figuring out how to rein in inflation.

Now let's look at the Fed's plans for the future.

The report says that within this year,the Fed is likely to cut rates twice more,totaling 75 basis points.

However,these rate cuts are not arbitrary; they must be careful not to trigger a second round of inflation.

High interest rates have left the global economy and finance as wilted as frostbitten eggplants,but the Americans have a trick up their sleeves,relying on supply-side stimulus policies to keep inflation expectations stable.

As for housing inflation,that's an even hotter potato; whether rate cuts will work is still up in the air.

Let's also take a look at the "troubled brothers" of US Treasuries and the US Dollar.

The interest rates on US Treasuries are expected to continue their downward journey amidst volatility.

The Fed is like a skilled kite flyer,holding the string,preventing inflation from soaring too high while also controlling the interest rates to slowly fall.

So,within 2024,the 10-year US Treasury rate is likely to hover around 3.2% to 3.7%.

As for the US Dollar,it's a tough cookie.

Despite the wave upon wave of global rate cuts,with the Euro and Yen wobbling,the US Dollar remains stubbornly above the 100 mark.

Why?

Historical experience tells us that during the rate-cutting cycle,the US Dollar is quite resilient.

After talking about the international situation,we must look back at our own situation.

Will our country follow suit with rate cuts?

That depends on whether demand is strong enough.

If demand is robust and our wallets loosen up,rate cuts will naturally follow.

But when and how to loosen the purse strings requires careful consideration,after all,we have many goals to consider comprehensively.

Speaking of the Renminbi exchange rate,that's our heart's concern.

In the short term,the Renminbi will continue to be strong,but crossing the 7.00 mark is like a threshold,not easily crossed.

Why?

The Fed has cut rates,but the US Dollar hasn't softened much,and there hasn't been a significant shift in the domestic fundamentals,so the resistance is naturally there.

What about the domestic bond market?

That's a bustling place.

As soon as the news of the Fed's rate cut came out,many institutions began to consider how to take advantage of the situation.

But we must be clear-headed; the fundamentals and policies are stable,and the general direction of interest rates hasn't changed,so don't rush to close the net yet,we still need to see which way the wind blows.

Ordinary people,not only should we pay attention to the changes in our wallets,but also look at the market's weathervane.

First,we must be vigilant about bond market regulation; don't be caught off guard by a sudden policy shift.

Second,the strength of the policy to stabilize growth is a big deal that affects whether our wallets are full,and we should be looking forward to it bringing good news.

Finally,we must be reminded that the market is always unpredictable.

If domestic policies are more aggressive than we think,if inflation doesn't follow the path we expect,or if the overseas economy throws another "surprise," then we must tighten our wallets and be ready to deal with these uncertainties at any time.