Abstract: The scale of U.S.national debt is increasing,and the larger the scale,the greater the probability of long-term low interest rates and the longer the duration of these low rates,the more stable the high-interest opportunities for core funds become.

The annual global central bank conference is approaching,and this year,a significant global tide of rate cuts is likely to begin.

In previous years,the Federal Reserve's rigid monetary policy made the global central bank conference uninteresting.

However,this year is quite different.

With a global wave of rate cuts,it is almost a certainty that is right before our eyes.

Jackson Hole,located in Wyoming,USA,is a cowboy resort town near Yellowstone National Park and Grand Teton National Park.

Every late August,central bank governors,finance ministers,and heads of international financial institutions gather here,making Jackson Hole one of the world's important economic policy discussion venues.

The theme of this year's global central bank conference is "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy."

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a keynote speech at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on August 23 (10:00 PM Beijing Time on Friday).

The Bank of England also announced that Governor Bailey will deliver a luncheon speech at 3:00 PM Eastern Time on Friday.

The European Central Bank's Chief Economist,Philip Lane,will participate in the panel discussion on Saturday.

In addition to Chairman Powell's keynote speech,there will be a Q&A session after each speech.

Regarding Powell's speech,Goldman Sachs pointed out that the market may receive signals of "confidence in rate cuts" and "data dependence."

It is expected that Powell's message and off-the-record interviews will be similar to what has been heard in the past few weeks,that is,the Federal Reserve is now close to cutting rates,but the degree of easing will depend on the upcoming data.

As the global anti-inflation effort enters its final stage,Goldman Sachs economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points three times starting in September and believe that the market has overestimated the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next meeting after the weaker-than-expected July employment data.

This week,several Asian central banks are meeting,including those of South Korea,Thailand,and Indonesia.

Considering the continuous decline in prices and slowing economic growth,all three central banks are expected to announce rate cuts.

Overall,this year's global central bank conference is quite anticipated because as the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting cycle,central banks around the world generally follow suit,except for countries with negative interest rates and high-interest countries,which are basically eager to follow suit with rate cuts.

A global wave of rate cuts is about to begin.

The extent of the rate cuts in the U.S.may exceed expectations.

According to the latest forecast from the CME FedWatch Tool on August 17,the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates starting in September is as high as 100%.

There is a 75% chance of a 25 basis point cut,and the possibility of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 25%.

At the same time,the tool predicts that by September 2025,the Federal Reserve will have reduced the benchmark interest rate to 2.25%.

According to this trend,it means that within the next year,the Federal Reserve may cumulatively cut rates by about 300 basis points.

It also signals that a new round of money printing by the Federal Reserve may be about to begin.

With the pressure of $35 trillion in U.S.debt,the long-term low interest rates in the future are one of the main reasons for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

If rates are not cut,the Federal Reserve will have to pay more than $200 billion in interest each year.

In the long term,the total scale of U.S.national debt will continue to grow,and when the total scale exceeds $50 trillion,it is expected that the Federal Reserve will find it theoretically difficult to raise rates in the future.

The market has its limits,so now we must prepare for a long-term low-interest rate environment by positioning core assets.

Gold and leading stocks in the stock market are now rising very happily,of course,that is in foreign stock markets.

However,domestic stocks have not risen,which may be an opportunity.

Pay attention to growth,growth,and growth leaders.

In the era of value investment,look at the space and the long term.

Is a big market trend really coming?

Not many people are bearish anymore.

In the past,when writing bullish views,many people would leave messages cursing in private messages on public accounts,but now it seems they have no strength left.

Recently,there has been no such atmosphere.

Perhaps in the face of the bright signal of the tide of rate cuts,the bears are also panicked.

Of course,at least for growth leaders,they dare not be bearish anymore.

For junk stocks,they still need to be bearish.

Times have changed!

If the era of leaders arrives,the big A may quickly rush to 5,000 points,and then everyone will find that many stocks do not rise.

They are so angry that they are half dead,and then they are pulled up to 6,000 points,and they will really rise to the point where people curse.

Like the U.S.stock market,it rises by tens of thousands of points,and retail investors are gone.

Because the rise of leaders is not a collective rise,many junk stocks cannot rise.

Just a few leaders support the index,and the world is angry.

Just like 1800 years ago,Wang Mang overturned the caste system.